2 July, 2023
This essay discusses the key political outcomes of the recent military mutiny by the Russian private military company Wagner on June 24-25. The author highlights three main results:
1. The myth of overwhelming support for Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine by the Russian population and state apparatus has been entirely dispelled. The rebellion revealed a lack of genuine public backing for the regime, despite previous claims of widespread approval.
2. The doctrine of hybrid wars, adopted by the Putin regime in 2013 and implemented with the involvement of the Wagner PMC, has completely collapsed. The government is unlikely to repeat this strategy after the mutiny attempt.
3. The mutiny severely undermined Putin’s authority and legitimacy, prompting him to seek asylum in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It is suggested that in a future political crisis, he may approach these countries again for refuge. However, this would raise the issue of whether they would comply with the ICC warrant for Putin’s arrest, potentially leading to reputational damage, if they fail to comply with the international law.